第九章 技术、均衡与人的意识

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  1. For a review of these theoretical explorations, see Michael Gerson, “The Origins of Strategic Stability: The United States and the Threat of Surprise Attack,” inStrategic Stability: Contending Interpretations, ed. Elbridge Colby and Michael Gerson (Carlisle, Pa: Strategic Studies Institute and U.S. Army War College Press, 2013); Michael Quinlan,Thinking About Nuclear Weapons: Principles, Problems, Prospects (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2009).

  2. See Chapter 6.

  3. 关于1973年中东危机中美国的“核戒备”，已经有许多著述。实际上，其主要目的是让常规部队（第六舰队和一个空降师）进入戒备状态，以应对勃列日涅夫在致尼克松的信中所发出的威胁，即他将派苏联部队赴中东作战。战略部队战备状态的升级是边际性的，莫斯科很可能根本就没有注意到。

  4. C. A. Mack, “Fifty Years of Moore’s Law,”IEEE Transactions on Semiconductor Manufacturing 24, no. 2 (May 2011): 202–7.

  5. For mostly optimistic reviews of these developments, see Rick Smolan and Jennifer Erwitt, eds.,The Human Face of Big Data(Sausalito, Calif.: Against All Odds, 2013); and Eric Schmidt and Jared Cohen,The New Digital Age: Reshaping the Future of People, Nations and Business (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2013). For more critical perspectives, see Jaron Lanier,Who Owns the Future? (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2013); Evgeny Morozov,The Net Delusion: The Dark Side of Internet Freedom (New York: PublicAffairs, 2011); andTo Save Everything, Click Here: The Folly of Technological Solutionism (New York: PublicAffairs, 2013).

  6. 诺伯特·维纳在其1948年的著作《控制论》中引入了“网络”这个词，指一种沟通节点，不过所指的是人与人之间而不是计算机与计算机之间。接近当前用法的“网络空间”这个词出自20世纪80年代几位科幻小说作家的著作。

  7. Viktor Mayer-Sch?nberger and Kenneth Cukier,Big Data: A Revolution That Will Transform How We Live, Work, and Think (Boston: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2013), 73–97.

  8. Don Clark, “‘Internet of Things’ in Reach,”Wall Street Journal, January 5, 2014.

  9. Smolan and Erwitt,Human Face of Big Data, 135.

  10. See David C. Gompert and Phillip Saunders,The Paradox of Power: Sino-American Strategic Relations in an Age of Vulnerability (Washington, D.C.: National Defense University, 2011).

  11. Ralph Langer, “Stuxnet: Dissecting a Cyberwarfare Weapon,”IEEE Security and Privacy 9, no. 3 (2011): 49–52.

  12. Rex Hughes, quoting General Keith Alexander, in “A Treaty for Cyberspace,”International Affairs 86, no. 2 (2010): 523–41.

  13. Publius [James Madison],The Federalist 10, in Hamilton, Madison, and Jay,Federalist Papers, 46–47.

  14. See “Digital Set to Surpass TV in Time Spent with US Media: Mobile Helps Propel Digital Time Spent,” eMarketer.com, August 1, 2013 (reporting that the average American adult spends “5 hours per day online, on nonvoice mobile activities or with other digital media” and 4.5 hours per day watching television); Brian Stelter, “8 Hours a Day Spent on Screens, Study Finds,”New York Times,March 26, 2009 (reporting that “adults are exposed to screens... for about 8.5 hours on any given day”).

  15. T. S. Eliot, Collected Poems, 1909–1962 (Boston: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1991), 147.

  16. Betsy Sparrow, Jenny Liu, and Daniel M. Wegner, “Google Effects on Memory: Cognitive Consequences of Having Information at Our Fingertips,”Science333, no. 6043 (2011): 776–78.

  17. See Nicholas Carr,The Shallows: What the Internet Is Doing to Our Brains(New York: W. W. Norton, 2010).

  18. Erik Brynjolfsson and Michael D. Smith, “The Great Equalizer? Consumer Choice Behavior at Internet Shopbots” (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Sloan School of Management, 2001).

  19. Neal Leavitt, “Recommendation Technology: Will It Boost E-commerce?,”Computer 39, no. 5 (2006): 13–16.

  20. See Clive Thompson,Smarter Than You Think: How Technology Is Changing Our Minds for the Better (New York: Penguin Press, 2013).

  21. Schmidt and Cohen,New Digital Age, 35, 198–99.

  22. See for example, Ofeibea Quist-Arcton, “Text Messages Used to Incite Violence in Kenya,” National Public Radio, February 20, 2008 and “When SMS Messages Incite Violence in Kenya,”Harvard Law School Internet & Democracy Blog, February 21, 2008. For a discussion of this and other examples, see Morozov,Net Delusion, 256–61.

  23. 也就是说，“预测分析”领域方兴未艾，既用于商业用途，也用于政府领域，预测社会和个人层面的思想和行为。See Eric Siegel, Predictive Analytics: The Power to Predict Who Will Click, Buy, Lie, or Die (Hoboken, N.J.: John Wiley & Sons, 2013).

  24. For an exploration of this concept, particularly as applied to the commercial realm, see Lanier,Who Owns the Future?

  25. See Chapter 3.

  26. Mayer-Sch?nberger and Cukier,Big Data, 150.

  27. Edmund Burke,Reflections on the Revolution in France (1790; Indianapolis: Hackett, 1987), 29.

第八章 美国：心情矛盾的超级大国结论 当今时代能建立世界秩序吗？